Granger Morgan

Granger Morgan is Professor and Head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University where he is also University and Lord Chair Professor in Engineering. In addition, he holds academic appointments in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering and in The H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management.

His research addresses problems in science, technology and public policy with a particular focus on energy, environmental systems, climate change and risk analysis. Much of his work has involved the development and demonstration of methods to characterize and treat uncertainty in quantitative policy analysis. At Carnegie Mellon, Morgan directs the NSF Climate Decision Making Center and co-directs, with Lester Lave, the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center.  Morgan serves as Chair of the Scientific and Technical Council for the International Risk Governance Council.

In the recent past, he served as Chair of the Science Advisory Board of the US Environmental Protection Agency and as Chair of the Advisory Council of the Electric Power Research Institute. He is a Member of the National Academy of Sciences, and a Fellow of the AAAS, the IEEE, and the Society for Risk Analysis.  He holds a BA from Harvard College (1963) where he concentrated in Physics, an MS in Astronomy and Space Science from Cornell (1965) and a Ph.D. from the Department of Applied Physics and Information Sciences at the University of California at San Diego (1969).

 Selected Publications:

•     M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion, with Mitchell Small, Uncertainty:  A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk  and  policy analysis, 332pp., Cambridge University Press,  New York, 1990.  (Paperback edition 1992.  Latest printing (with revised Chapter 10) 1998.)

•     H. Keith Florig, M. Granger Morgan, Kara M. Morgan, Karen E. Jenni, Baruch Fischhoff, Paul S. Fischbeck and Michael L. DeKay, "A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (I):  Overview and test bed development," Risk Analysis, 21(5), 913-921, 2001; Kara M. Morgan, Michael L. DeKay, Paul S. Fischbeck, M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, "A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (II):  Evaluation of validity and agreement among risk managers," Risk Analysis, 21(5), 923-937, 2001.

 •     Bill Strauss, M. Granger Morgan, Jay Apt and Daniel Stancil, "Unsafe at Any Airspeed: Cellphones and other electronics are more of a risk than you think," IEEE Spectrum, 43(3), 44-49, 2006.

•     Kirsten Zickfeld, Anders Levermann, Till Kuhlbrodt. Stefan Rahmstorf, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Expert Judgements on the Response on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Climate Change," Climatic Change, 82, 235-265, 2007.

 •     Elizabeth Wilson, M. Granger Morgan, and 16 other authors, "Regulating the Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide," Environmental Science & Technology, Feature issue on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Utilization, 2718-2722, April 15, 2008.

•     Jacqueline Anne MacDonald, Mitchell J. Small and M. Granger Morgan, "Explosion Probability of Unexplored Ordnance:  Expert Beliefs," Risk Analysis, 28, 825-841, 2008.